OldDix TSP

We have not seen this type of price action in a long time and I think today got everyone’s attention. I have been doing a little selling in the background if you have been reading the emails. I took some losses and took some profits, but the most important thing is YTD I am still in the green.

So let’s look at our four charts that represent our indexes.

The title says it all.

March was very kind to us, and we have to be realistic, knowing that for the last 5 months, the S&P 500 has been on a tear. When markets are like this, everyone feels like a hero, and they can do no wrong. Throw a dart at a wall with the names of several stocks, and you will make money. This is the current market. 

Preserving capital when the markets turn upside down and stepping out in safety is where things get messy. Since 2020, we have been dancing in and out of the markets, sometimes making money and sometimes giving some back, but for the most part, not taking major hits to our accounts. This is important because when the markets are on a tear like they are now, we recover extremely quickly, and our percentage returns also multiply quickly. Just take a peek at the last 12 months for my personal returns:

The first quarter and March 2024 are in the books. Wow is all I can say and that is a good wow. I made some major changes on the ETF tab and I will post about that this weekend. Now take a look are our closing numbers and what a 5 months it has been.

March was another good month for us, and unless we see a major collapse tomorrow, we should see over a 2% gain for March. This will make five months in a row with a positive result. So what index outshined the rest? Do you have a guess? You might be surprised. How should we tweak going into April? 

Let’s get to it.

There are four days left for the month of March and the first quarter of 2024. Can you believe that? How much longer can this run go? Do you remember when this surge began? Someone out there in the Internet world created a chart showing what happens during a presidential election year. Let me show you. 

Last week looked a little sick, and most indexes and stocks pulled back. Nothing goes up forever without profit taking and then add triple witching, and it makes the current market hard to read. Next week, we will get a better feel for what the markets might do going forward. 

At the end of the chart summary for the week, I will have some information about 401k’s and Roth conversions. If you know the answer, please share.

I have had several conversations with my son and, recently, a couple of readers here about Roth conversion. I am still sitting on the fence about a conversion, but I do understand the long-term advantage. My hangup is the 5-year wait before you can touch the converted money to avoid another 10% penalty if you need the money. I think where I stand today, I have a few thoughts. I also made my first withdrawal from the TSP to the Charles Schwab IRA. 

Last week, the markets had a feel like prices were going to begin to consolidate or roll over. We also had an index fire a daily buy, and I will have to adjust the Dix funds. I will show my standard four-chart view, but I am going to expand the daily charts and focus on them this week.