OldDix TSP

The markets might actually be ready to make a move. Do the big players know something we little players do not? Is this just a tech rally? Home Depot news dragged the markets down yesterday for a while but by the end of the day, we saw a nice gain.

Check out my mini-S&P 500 30-minute chart below.

Another week in the books and nothing happen all week. Yes most indexes floated slightly down, but for the most part nothing happened. These type of markets are annoying but I can guarantee that something is going to bust lose sooner or later. The consolidation patterns are getting very long.

The balance beam is where we are sitting today and it appears we are just waiting to see what side of the balance beam we fall. Will it be on the side of sellers or buyers? Last week had a moment of drama and I actually thought we were getting ready to see another rollover, but that didn’t happen and stocks bounced with Apple earnings. There is drama approaching with the debt ceiling negotiations but how do you handle that when investing long-term? In my opinion, you stick with your plan and follow price and make your decisions when price dictates a move.

So let’s see what happened to our charts last week.

After the Fed speak and the rate increase, here we go again. Also hearing another bank might be folding on the west coast.

Update: S&P fired its first sell warning and Bonds crawled back above monthly. We watch more tomorrow.

Update: .25% hike confirmed.

If you read Sunday’s blog, you know what the above means.

Has the chop finally ended? Will the S&P break through resistance? How about the International? Is it still stuck in a pattern? Is the Small Cap going to bottom? Lastly, will we ever get back in Bonds?

I still need to make my monthly closing numbers post because I use these post for research to find data. It felt good to have a monthly gain in the books. I also made the move today to increase my risk. Here are the numbers.

Tomorrow will be the end of April and if you have a move left, it is time to use it if you need to make an adjustment. Let me be clear, sometimes doing nothing is ok. We do not have to make a move just because we have one. This is where the TSP Gods should allow us to rollover our moves to bank at least 6 max that we can use in volatile markets. I’ve submitted it a few times and I am sure it fell on deaf ears.

So let me show what May has done for us the last 5 years and what our charts are saying after this crazy week so far.

Did last week even happen? What the heck does that mean? Normally when I update monthly and weekly moving averages on my charts I see at least large moves with the daily moving averages, but this week some didn’t even move or moved by pennies. If you look at our closing numbers for the week the largest move was .56% and the lowest was .07%. The best move amongst the L-funds and Dix-funds was .13%.

So there was almost no movement last week and all our charts look almost the same. This coming week is also the last week for April, so Thursday night I will post possible moves going into May. This is the first time in months that I actually have one move left to burn for the coming month to make adjustments.