Are all the dominos falling?

We are going to look at support levels and talk about what might be coming in the next few weeks. Some will be based on charts and price, and some will be based on news.

This is my move.

Good morning. The markets will open lower. I put my change in the TSP this morning in case I can’t get to it by noon.

Without a doubt, there will have to be some kind of move tomorrow. I just do not see a 1.92% recovery unless the bombing stops and the price per barrel of oil drops 5% or more. Can all that happen overnight and before 11:30 AM?

Today we saw buyers return to the market, but was it enough? Did we hit bottom? Did volatility drop out of the high area? Bigger question: are they buying overseas? If you didn’t hear last night or this morning, the Seoul stock market was down so bad that circuit breakers kicked in and finished the day down 12%. Currently it has recovered and is up 11% as I type.

Let me show you some charts and data.

No move for me today.

This is a difficult read on the market because of a war and its potential impact on global business. I have been tracking one index over the last two days, and it got the absolute hammer! Let me just show you our four index charts, and let me explain what I will likely do tomorrow.

Yes, today is putting us at sell levels for every index. If you bail today, you lock in the losses without a doubt with one move left to get back in sometime in the future. As far as the TSP goes, I will wait and risk and defer my move until tomorrow morning to allow price to recover our sell levels. Remember, if a sell signal is triggered and remains active until the market closes at 4 PM, action will be taken the following day before noon. I get that market flushes are hard to watch and ride.

Regarding my IRA account, I will continue to monitor it throughout the day and make timely decisions. I make most moves normally happen between 3 and 4 PM.

If this is too gut-wrenching, you know what to do. I will wait until tomorrow to bail out of all TSP indexes and go 100% G-fund.

Oil is up 7%

Small Cap down 1.5%

S&P down 1.09%

Gold is up 5%

Do not knee jerk tomorrow. Give the markets at least 48 hours or until Tuesday.

The first two months of 2026 have been excellent for us. Next week, at the market opening, we could see a major shift lower due to the current news about war. I am not going to get into the political part because, as traders, we have to separate it from the job at hand. We have to eliminate the noise and emotion. If you cannot do that, you will lose money.

So let’s look at some details that I know are going to be discussed now that a new war has begun.