Daily charts as of 3/19/23

We have a new event that the stock market is having to consume and there are a lot of players out there that remember 2008 like it was yesterday. Fear! It can drive markets more than good earning reports can because I have seen it over and over again. What is different about this situation versus 2008 is a few factors and let’s look at that information as well as our charts.

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Closing numbers as of 3/17/23

What a crazy week to be in the market and it will be interesting to see how it shakes out next week. I never thought I would see another banking crisis in my lifetime, but here we are again. Would you believe that the NASDAQ or QQQ were up over 4% this weeks? The TSP has no index that invests in the Q’s, but it did help drag one of our indexes uphill.

Here are the numbers:

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TSP daily charts as of 3/12/23

What a week last week was. No matter how good a plan you have to protect your assets, there are times the stock market players will catch you and everyone else off guard. The FED has been raising rates since last summer to curb inflation and slow the growth of the job market. Last week the number of jobs increased higher than the FED wanted and now we can expect interest rates to continue to rise.

Higher interest rates have a killing effect on so many things in our world and until we sit back and think about it, we are like, what is the big deal? The cost to carry any balance on a credit card. The cost to finance any type of transportation, a car. The cost to buy a house. That is just for retail buyers like ourselves.

What about businesses? Well yes, it does and I think our first bank in California, Silicon Valley Bank, closed its doors Friday and people could not get their money. Higher borrowing costs and then a run on the bank cause it to become insolvent. We haven’t seen anything like this since 2007-2008 and that was ugly.

So, how do we control this as investors? You can’t! All you can do is analyze the current situation and make your best decision.

Let’s look at our charts.

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All levels held

Going to make this post short and sweet. All levels held today for the three indexes we are watching and nothing will have to be done tomorrow. Bonds continue to sink.

What will tomorrow bring?

I did see an interesting chart that I want to share with you. The take is this. When the markets are in Bull market mode, all-time highs are made. When the markets are bad and sometimes in a Bear market mode, they do not. We all know about the housing crash and the dot-com crash and if you study the chart, those events are glaring.

What will happen in 2023?

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Will the Dance with the Fed ever end?

How many times have we seen the stock market jerk in one direction or the other because of the FED since November 2022? It seems like every two weeks it is something new. This time it was less than a week. It was just 3/2/23 when the rumored interest rate was moved from .50% to .25% back to a new forecast today of .50% because of the FED hearings on the hill. It is getting a little out of control and it will make the best of us start pulling out their hair.

Ok, that is enough venting, let’s get to our three primary charts and we will decide if anything needs to be done tomorrow.

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